Pipeline coverage compares the commission pipeline expected in a period with a commission target for that same period. Unweighted coverage uses eligible pipeline commission; weighted coverage multiplies each deal by an estimated closing probability first. Label the method, use consistent gross or net amounts and keep expected receipts separate from sales forecasts.
Two coverage measures, two different questions
Unweighted coverage = eligible pipeline commission ÷ commission target. This shows how much potential business is available relative to the goal.
Weighted coverage = Σ (deal commission × estimated closing probability) ÷ commission target. This adds assumptions about likely outcomes. It is a model, not a promise.
Do not silently switch definitions between reports. Use the same period, currency and gross-or-net basis in numerator and denominator. Property transaction value should not be divided by a commission target.
A worked example in AED
The following is an illustrative calculation, not data from a WIYO customer:
| Deal | Expected commission | Illustrative probability | Weighted commission |
|---|---|---|---|
| A | AED 40,000 | 30% | AED 12,000 |
| B | AED 75,000 | 50% | AED 37,500 |
| C | AED 120,000 | 60% | AED 72,000 |
| D | AED 90,000 | 90% | AED 81,000 |
| Total | AED 325,000 | — | AED 202,500 |
Against an AED 250,000 target, unweighted coverage is 325,000 ÷ 250,000 = 1.30×. Weighted coverage is 202,500 ÷ 250,000 = 0.81×. Both are valid descriptions of the same example when clearly labelled. The second result depends on the assumptions being reasonable.
How to choose probabilities
Use sufficiently mature historical cohorts and track which deals actually reached the outcome. Do not count only deals that are still open, or give a stage a high probability because its name sounds advanced. Separate resale, rental and off-plan models where their timing and outcomes differ.
When data is limited, label the probabilities as management assumptions. Compare forecast with actual outcome and revise the model. A precise decimal does not make a weak assumption reliable.
Off-plan buyer instalments are not brokerage commission receipts
A developer payment plan describes the buyer’s obligations. The brokerage’s commission entitlement and payment timing come from its own agreement with the developer or relevant counterparty. They should not be assumed to follow every construction instalment.
Maintain two views where needed:
- Sales forecast: the expected commission associated with eligible deals in the forecast period.
- Cash forecast: the commission expected to be received in the cash-planning period, using the actual entitlement, invoice, due date and collection assumptions.
Do not count the same commission twice across milestones. Keep collected revenue separate from open pipeline, and distinguish gross brokerage commission from the brokerage’s retained amount after agreed allocations.
A weekly coverage review
| Check | Manager question |
|---|---|
| Eligibility | Is the expected close or receipt within this report’s period? |
| Amount | Is the fee current, agreed and measured on the same basis as the target? |
| Probability | Is the stage supported by evidence and calibrated to relevant history? |
| Ageing | Has the expected date slipped without a new next action? |
| Concentration | Does one large deal account for most of the result? |
A CRM can provide the source records, but confirm the exact reporting fields and calculations in your implementation. See the pipeline failure-point guide and commission tracking workflow.
Frequently asked questions
Is pipeline coverage always weighted?
No. Teams use both unweighted and weighted versions. Label the method and keep it consistent so managers can interpret the result.
Is 3× coverage a universal target?
No. A useful target depends on your historical conversion, timing, concentration and whether the ratio is weighted. Do not copy a benchmark without matching its definition.
Can I use property sale value instead of commission?
Only if both the pipeline and target are defined as property transaction value. For a commission target, use commission in the numerator as well.
Do off-plan payment milestones determine commission receipts?
Not automatically. Verify the brokerage’s commission agreement and expected payment date separately from the buyer’s payment schedule.
Written by
Shaffay Bajwa
Founder & CTO at WIYO · Software engineer, 5 years building in the UAE real estate market.
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